Much in the same style of the article where I described what, in my opinion, is driving the Mobility Transition, I have decided attempt the same analysis for the over-arching Energy Transition.
1: Cost reductions
Sure, fancy footwork around science can (but only momentarily) blur the issue in the eyes of weak-minded governments too used to sucking up fossil narrative, but hard cost advantages are real and growing: whether for generation or for moving cars and trucks,
RENEWABLES ARE CHEAPER
De-risking is another big driver for the energy transition. The volatility of prices due to the pandemic aftermath and the war is scything through the business models of a lot of smaller energy players. Profits may be through the roof for O&G, but not necessarily so for energy generation and trade companies.
in a nutshell, the generation company risks being caught between a rock (rising fuel prices) and a hard place (inflexible selling contracts).
3: National Security
This comes last because while it’s very relevant for Europe it’s much less so for the U.S. and China, which seems to have a plan that’s largely revolving around the control of natural resources and is probably waiting to pick-up the pieces after Russia implodes after the ill-advised war in Ukraine.
Europe imports between €20B and €25B per month worth of fossil fuel products: it is inevitable that such a mass of money whets the appetite of a would-be dictator thinking s/he could rule the world by holding Europe as hostage. It happened with the Arab nations in the 70s, it’s happening with Russia today. While the U.S. has a strategic interest in a strong Europe, its energy policy will never coincide with that of the EU, being the largest crude producer in the world.