Do turnout numbers add up?

[EDITED for a calculation mistake – sorry!]

SkyData released this turnout by age group table for which I could not find background or research supporting it.

Screenshot 2016-06-27 11.44.52.png

If these numbers were true, this would be the voter structure (weighted by the UK’ population structure – as of Wikipedia):

Screenshot 2016-06-27 12.47.58.png

This indicates that there were THREE TIMES the number of old geezers compared to kids at the polling booths; when you combine this voter structure with the known Remain percentage and add it all up, you get a Remain total of 49.2%,

Screenshot 2016-06-27 12.30.16.png

which is wrong, but not by much. Given the other numbers are rather well researched, my conclusion is that the turnout by age is slightly off but credible.

This therefore means that the problem of the Remain camp was NOT that old people “stole the future” from their kids: had each age group contributed at the same rate of the oldest group, Remain would have won with nearly 60% of vote.

Does anyone have a better source for turnout by age group?

One thought on “Do turnout numbers add up?

  1. Hi Gianni

    The SkyData breakdown is ‘projected’, that is, extrapolated, not polled. There doesn’t seem to be any real turnout by age group data available.

    A good analysis is here: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/boris-gone-next-tory-pm-will-be-dangerously-tough-immigration

    There’s some suggestive evidence in that overall turnout was lower in places with younger populations (see, for example https://next.ft.com/content/1ce1a720-ce94-3c32-a689-8d2356388a1f), but there’s no hard data, because nobody collected it.

    As you say, SkyData’s projections seem a little off, but broadly credible.

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